Nevertheless, they are subject to varied controversies and contradictions. Also depending on the context, polls results can serve as a predictor of future electoral success (Zerback, Reinemann, & Nienierza, 2015). Besides, polls can assist in expanding the political space of political elites (Ramshaw, 2014) and in some places serve as indications of the trajectory of future election (Wlezien, Jennings, Fisher, Ford, & Pickup, 2013). Other writers have also highlighted the value of political polls in promoting political debates and public education (Jacobs & Shapiro, 2005 Patterson, 2005 Wright, Farrar, & Russell, 2013).
965) argues, electoral surveys have three main uses in multiparty politics: to forecast the outcome of an election, to understand voter behaviour and to inform campaign strategies. According to Makulilo (2013) such polls are important for projecting voter intentions while to Ndati, Wambua, and Mogambi (2014) they help to measure the support of political parties and public perceptions on different issues. Particularly, surveys conducted during elections in various countries are central to modern-day democratic practices and electoral strategy. As a component of survey research, opinion polls help to describe, understand, explain, analyse and predict the perceptions and behaviour of a population or its sample (Fayoyin & Ngwainmbi, 2015 Kou & Sobel, 2004). Polls are a permanent feature of democratic processes and are essential to policy making and public engagement on social issues globally (Esomar & Wapor, 2014 Lewis, 2001). Stricter regulations, such as the embargo of election opinion polling may also be considered in different contexts.įor over 80 years, opinion polling has been a major element of democratic polity and a source of data and information across the world. The paper recommends strategies for addressing the identified pitfalls, including increased professionalization of opinion polling, voter education on the limitations of pre-election polls and stronger appreciation of data journalism for media professionals. It argues that as a result of the inherent political and electoral volatility in many African countries, the utility of opinion polls need to be reconsidered. Thus, the chapter questions the continued use of electoral polls in multiparty politics in Africa. The digital age has also led to a mushrooming of online polls, but some of them are of dubious quality. However, evidence from various countries indicates that electoral polls have been characterised by contradictions and contentious debates which undermine their usefulness in democratic processes. AbstractOpinion polling during elections plays a pivotal role in influencing the political and media agenda, and can potentially affect voting behaviour.
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